Internet Explorer to drop below 50% browser share by 2011?

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David Flynn13 May 2009, 12:19 AM

Steady uptake of Firefox, Safari and Chrome sees Microsoft’s browser slip to 66% of share – and the slide will continue until it tumbles below 50%, says one analyst.


The release of Internet Explorer 8 hasn’t been sufficient to halt the decline of Microsoft’s mighty and once near-unchallenged browser. Figures released by the browser-watching boffins at Net Applications show that as of April Internet Explorer dropped to an all-time low of 66.1% of the world’s browser market, down just over two points from six months ago.

The steady fall in Internet Explorer’s popularity has been mirrored by the climb in Firefox, Safari and Chrome, which in the past six months have all hit new milestones.

November 2008 saw Firefox finally nudge its way over 20% share, with the current figures pegging the open-source browser at 22.48% and trending to hit 25% before the year is out.

In the following month Chrome broke into single digits – a figure that might tempt one to dismiss Google’s shiny new browser but for the fact that it’s now sitting at 1.42%, more than twice the share of the longer-lived Opera.

Safari seems to be enjoying even better fortunes, rocketing from 6.57% in October 2008 to 7.93% in December and then bursting to the current 8.21%.

On a per version basis Internet Explorer 7.0 tops the chart at 44.51%, well ahead of Firefox 3 at 20.25%, Internet Explorer 6 at 17.52%, Safari 3.2 at 4.29% and Internet Explorer 8 at 3.99%.

The Internet Explorer tide is turning in favour of 8.0, of course, with the two previous editions show a definite dropping off — although some users appear to be moving to a competing browser instead of following Microsoft’s preferred upgrade path, which now includes IE8.0 being pushed to users through the automated Windows Update service.

In an interview with US publication Computerworld, a Net Applications spokesman said that if Internet Explorer’s downwards trajectory continues the browser would dip below a 50% market share by mid-2011.

“Is there an end to IE’s decline?” ponders Vince Vizzaccaro, Net Applications’ executive vice president of marketing. “I don’t know. I never thought they would drop this far. IE had such a huge market advantage, and Firefox, in a competitive environment, continues to gain share. We’ve seen some seasonal flux [to Firefox’s share], but now it’s just continuing to go on an upward trend.”


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The Big Baboo (User):

Yup :) Even if I upgraded to the next version of Windows whatever that might be I would continue to use Firefox because it works so well and looks so good :) Of course now and then it crashes badly but it always give you the option of restoring the session you were using before. IE never did this for me :)

13 May 2009, 8:59 AM (10 months ago)report abuse Send to a friend reply

TV Bis (User):

Quoting The Big Baboo:
Of course now and then it crashes badly but it always give you the option of restoring the session you were using before. IE never did this for me :)

IE is multi threading, Firefox is not. This means that if one Tab is unstable it will not bring other tabs down hence the reason why I still use IE. I believe the only other browser that is multi threaded is Chrome......




13 May 2009, 10:20 AM (10 months ago)report abuse Send to a friend reply

The Big Baboo (User):

Quoting TV Bis:
IE is multi threading, Firefox is not.

Thanks for that TV Bis :) But yea i still like Firefox better coz it just looks so cool and the odd crash now and then I can put up with.



14 May 2009, 3:00 PM (10 months ago)report abuse Send to a friend reply

CBR1100XX (Advanced member):

" .... says one analyst...." - David Flynn

...... So it's gospel then ?

Even with a market share of 49%, it is still the dominant browser by a country mile !

13 May 2009, 2:01 PM (10 months ago)report abuse Send to a friend reply

djsflynn (APC staff):

It's an analyst from the company which compiles the browser market share stats, which are highly accurate and highly regarded.

And as we noted, his prediction is based on "if IE's downwards trajectory continues". That's the pretty straight-forward and scientific method of observing the decline of IE as tracked over recent years and extending this for the next few years.

If by 2011 we have IE at 49% for Firefox at 30%, for instance, I'd not consider a 14% lead (in that example) to be market 'dominance'. IE would be the leading browser, yes, by virtue of having the greater market share. But I don't consider any long-established product with a 49%-and-falling share, stacked against a relative newcomer with 30%-and-rising share, to be 'dominant' in any industry.


13 May 2009, 2:43 PM (10 months ago)report abuse Send to a friend reply

CBR1100XX (Advanced member):

Quoting djsflynn:
If by 2011 we have IE at 49% for Firefox at 30%, for instance, I'd not consider a 14% lead

I think you mean 19% :)

Quoting djsflynn:
stacked against a relative newcomer

Hmmm ! I don't think Firefox or Safari should be considered as 'newcomers'.

Quoting djsflynn:
product with a 49%-and-falling share

Falling currently, yes ! But a company like MS will not let this happen long ! Even if they have to buy Firefox ;-)




13 May 2009, 6:09 PM (10 months ago)report abuse Send to a friend reply

djsflynn (APC staff):

Quoting CBR1100XX:
I think you mean 19% :)

Damn, this always happens when I write with numbers - my inumeracy floats to the surface! :P

Quoting CBR1100XX:
Hmmm ! I don't think Firefox or Safari should be considered as 'newcomers'.

I actually said 'relative newcomers' - and given that IE 1.0 came out in 1995, Safari in 2003 and Firefox 1.0 in 2004, I reckon 'relative newcomers' is fair enough.

Quoting CBR1100XX:
Falling currently, yes ! But a company like MS will not let this happen long !

I think a lot of people said the same when IE dropped below 90%, and then 80%...

Quoting CBR1100XX:
Even if they have to buy Firefox ;-)


Oh dear Lord no... Noooooooo!!!


14 May 2009, 2:44 AM (10 months ago)report abuse Send to a friend reply

Chris (User):

He doesn't say that it will drop. It says if the downwards trajectory continues the browser would dip below a 50%.
So if IE continues with this downward trajectory it will eventually drop below 10%!

13 May 2009, 4:54 PM (10 months ago)report abuse Send to a friend reply

K (Cornerstone member):

It would be interesting to see if there's a difference between personal/home use and enterprise use. I would put my money on Firefox dominating the former and IE the latter.

13 May 2009, 5:54 PM (10 months ago)report abuse Send to a friend reply

Raindog (Senior Forumologist):

Quoting K:
I would put my money on Firefox dominating the former and IE the latter.

That may be true but it's based more upon the availability of IE as a bundled option and the enforcing of non standardised web pages from other Microsoft services such as exchange server. IE does not exist because of any merits it may have as a product.


13 May 2009, 6:57 PM (10 months ago)report abuse Send to a friend reply

Tin (Regular user):

Quoting K:
personal/home use and enterprise use. I would put my money on Firefox dominating the former and IE the latter.


You'd be surprised how many businesses and enterprises are starting to require users to use something other than IE. Those enterprises still clinging to IE are sticking to IE6 because that's the last browser that works with the clunky broken internal web tools.

14 May 2009, 10:53 AM (10 months ago)report abuse Send to a friend reply

andor9x (New user):

I don't mind IE, its picky at first but after thats it's ok... but a bit slow

I use firefox and chrome usually and occasionally I use IE for online AV scanners

19 October 2009, 1:52 AM (4 months ago)report abuse Send to a friend reply

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