Ashton Mills08 January 2007, 3:43 AM
Every year we hear predictions that this year, Linux will make it big. But every year, Linux continues to be the teenager that never grows up. Will this year be different?
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Every year we hear predictions that this year, Linux will make it big. From its growth as a workhorse server operating system to its inroads into the desktop space, Linux always seems however to be forever the teenager that never grows up. Will this year be different?
It's not surprising Linux is still seen by some as the backwater OS for long-bearded geeks and those with questionable social skills. And sure, while that defines some of us, the success of Red Hat, SuSE, and even Caldera in the past has shown that there's a much more professional side capable of dealing with the corporate market on its own terms.
Though many companies still don't get it.
But while there's a ton of money in the server space, ubiquity for Linux relies on the desktop market, a market that for years now analysts and punters alike have predicted Linux will 'make it big' at any moment.
Only it has hasn't happened, and for all the reasons that are blindingly obvious -- maturity, standardisation, ease of use, and most importantly of all: mindspace. Linux, despite its constant presence in the paper and online media of the world, just doesn't click for most people as an alternative for Windows. And it won't either until companies like Red Hat (were it its interest) or Canonical invest giant wads of cash to promote it as such, and appear to the masses the same way Microsoft does when it launches a new version of its OS (Rolling Stones anyone?)
And in fact, if anyone is capable of doing it, it's Mark Shuttleworth and Ubuntu.
So will 2007 be the year? Nah. Not because it wouldn't be within the domain of possibility for Shuttleworth and ilk to make Linux a campaign, and not because any of the old bugbears like device or application support remain, because they are all but non-existent now (and for those that are, welcome to the new age of virtualisation).
And not even while this year will see a disappointing uptake of Vista for Microsoft -- because lets face it, there is no need to upgrade, and there are still common applications that don't work and driver support that's non-existent -- and thus would be a golden opportunity for Linux to face off with Windows and show tit for tat what you can get for free in place of Windows.
No, it's because Linux still isn't ready. And won't be, I think, for another three years. The de-facto Gnome and KDE desktop environments, while eminently useable and brilliant, are not eminently Windows user useable, not even the most recent betas. And note I don't say this to imply the Windows user interface is superior, or in any way better designed. That's got nothing to do with it. It's simply about familiarity. The comfort of the same. People do not like to change, and like water, will take the easiest path.
So until the Linux desktop acts as an *exact* drop-in replacement to Windows, no questions asked, it can’t be promoted as such and it can’t grab the rest of the world by the short and curlies as a better, even free, alternative. And for Linux to arrive, this is exactly what it must do. A business plan, even, not too far fetched from Microsoft’s – embrace (the Windows paradigm), extend (improve and better it), and extinguish (well… lets call this marketing and let the people decide).
Three years, my prediction, before the Linux desktop becomes ready for socially ept, clean shaven, rest of the world.