David Flynn13 July 2009, 7:51 PM
Two new reports contain starkly contrasting forecasts for Windows 7. They can’t both be right...
Windows 7 will be the must-have upgrade for 2010, easily outstripping Vista and even overtaking the evergreen Windows XP as the OS of choice.
Windows 7 will be skipped by 60% of companies, due to budgetary pressures and concerns over compatibility with existing applications.
Those very different forecasts from research firm IDC and Windows support firm ScriptLogic Corp are the ying and yang of Windows 7, representing the best case and worst case scenarios for Microsoft’s next-gen OS. Will companies step up, or stay put?
IDC’s report is typically gung-ho. The bullish boffins predict that by the end of next year Windows 7 will account for a staggering 49.5% of Windows operating systems bought by corporations – presumably both as OS roll-outs onto existing systems and pre-loads on new PCs.
Vista, which was shunned by many companies, will represent a miniscule 15% of the Windows market according to IDC. And even Windows XP will be pegged at 35% as businesses skip Vista and move straight to 7.
A year later, according to IDC, Windows 7 will soar to nearly 75% of the Windows market, leaving Vista at a laughable 0.5% before disappearing completely in 2012.
IDC reckons that Windows 7 will hit an all-conquering 95% of Microsoft operating systems sold to businesses by 2013, although the company appears not to have taken into account the expected release of Windows 7’s successor – which for the time being we’ll call Windows 8 – sometime in 2012, if not sooner.
“What happens is Windows 7 comes along and it immediately co-ops Vista's momentum. Vista momentum pretty directly shifts over to Windows 7” explains IDC analyst Al Gillen.
“At some point users are going to want to move forward. All you need is demand for one application designed for Windows 7 and you can no longer use XP. And for those customers that moved to Vista, it makes sense to me for them to move forward to 7 on a fairly immediate basis”.
But what if companies can’t afford to the the up-front investment in an all-new OS?
Microsoft and its OEM partners will naturally spruik the many productivity gains attributed from Windows 7 or even to upgrading a fleet of 2005-era systems to the latest and greatest desktops and laptops. But that argument will be lost on six out of ten companies, if Windows network management firm ScriptLogic is to be believed.
The US-based company, which provides network administration software for Windows-based networks, surveyed over 1,000 of its customers on their plans regarding Windows 7. Some 60 percent of the respondents said they had no plans to deploy Windows 7.
34% said they would move to Windows 7 by the end of 2010, while only 5.4 percent intend to roll out Windows 7 by the end of this year.
42% cited a “lack of time and resources” as their primary reason for steering clear of Windows 7 – signs that tightening budgets and a ‘do more with less’ mantra may cruel Windows 7’s appeal to IT administrators, despite the enthusiastic response the OS has enjoyed form virtually every quarter of the industry. Indeed, 35% of respondents said they had already skipped Windows upgrades or delayed purchases in order to to save money.
39% of respondents also voiced their concern about the compatibility of Windows 7 with existing applications, although Microsoft has moved to quell this with the introduction of a virtualised
Windows XP Mode in Windows 7.