The massive SSD price drop in the MacBook Air shows Apple is clearing stock to prepare for next generation SSDs from Samsung.
Last week Apple cut $640 from the price of the 64GB solid state drive (SSD) option on the MacBook Air. APC has learned that a driving factor behind the move is to prepare for the next generation of NAND-based SSDs from Samsung, coming in 128GB and 256GB varieties at faster performance ratings than the current 64GB model.
Sources close to the hardware industry have told APC that the SSD has been selling well for Apple, with volumes around 20k-25k per month since the MacBook Air launched — an attach rate of around 15% of all Air’s sold. This compares with an entire mainstream SSD market of 86,000 sold in 2007. While the price premium has been high, Apple has been well ahead of the volumes sold by HP, Sony, and Lenovo.
So with the price drop unrelated to any need to lift slow unit sales, could this adjustment point to a stock clearance to prepare for next generation components?
Joseph Unsworth, Research Director for NAND Flash Semiconductors at Gartner, agrees this looks to be the case. “The massive price drop is partly because flash prices have fallen more than 70% since Q408, which allows Apple to bring down prices while retaining its very favourable margin — which was big to begin with.”
“These price drops are necessary because I expect Apple to start rolling out next generation SSDs,” says Unsworth. “These will have higher capacities — 128GB and perhaps 256GB — which vendors are sampling now.”
The next generation SSD is based on Multi-Level Cell (MLC) technology which is used widely in smaller capacity products like flash memory cards, iPod, and iPhone. Current high-capacity SSDs are based on Single-Level Cell (SLC), which has to date been faster and tougher than MLC. With only single bits per cell, however, they have been much more expensive per GB. But in the tougher PC environment of constant writing to the drive, SLC has been used for quality reasons.
“Everyone — Samsung, Toshiba, SanDisk, Intel, Micron — is sampling MLC SSD,” says Unsworth, “enhanced through a robust controller to compensate for the lower quality MLC attributes. The challenge is for companies to use the cheaper but lower quality MLC NAND flash and ensure that it is at least the same if not better than the first generation drives.”
In May, Samsung announced their MLC-based 256GB SSD, which is boasting read/write speeds at 200MB/160MB, more than double the speed of the current MacBook Air SSD option.
SSD prices will continue to drop considerably over the coming years, however, it is not until 2010 and beyond that these will see high volume shipments.