What's behind the rise of Facebook?

Angus Kidman10 July 2007, 2:06 AM

Facebook is commonly presented as MySpace for people with brains, but that alone can't explain the sudden surge in the popularity of the social networking site. Is it the API? Is it the network effect? Or is it (shudder) Paris Hilton?


Facebook is commonly presented as "MySpace for people with brains", but that alone can't explain the sudden surge in the popularity of the social networking site. Is it the API? Is it the network effect? Or is it (shudder) Paris Hilton?

If you haven't received an invitation to sign up for Facebook in the past few months, you are obviously a deeply unpopular and horrible person who has no business being on the Internet.

OK, that's a slight exaggeration, but there's no denying that Facebook has emerged seemingly out of nowhere to become a major contender in the social networking space, fighting hard for second-place position in the market against Bebo. (MySpace remains the dominant social networking platform, a position it's frankly unlikely to cede any time soon.)

A recent analysis by Hitwise demonstrates the growth in Facebook's profile. Between mid-April and the end of June, visits to Facebook by Australian users grew by 246%. Some of that growth may have come at the expense of MySpace -- its share of Hitwise's 'Net Communities and Chat Websites' category dropped by around 1% during the same period to just over 7%, while Facebook's doubled from under 2% to just under 4%. Searches for the term 'Facebook' also rose by 93% during that time, Hitwise found.


According to Facebook itself, the site currently claims 27 million users, and Australia represents its fifth-largest user group (for some odd reason, Norway, ranks ahead, despite having one-fifth the population. Come on Aussies!)

Some related statistics are even more disturbing. One 2006 study by Student Monitor found Facebook in a three-way tie for second place with beer as a key "in" element of the tertiary education experience. (With that said, the fact that "iPod" outranked both "beer" and "sex" is even more of a worry.)

But what's behind the current boom? Facebook's recent growth has often been attributed to the site's decision to expand from its original university-only roots and allow anyone to sign up. However, as that decision was made in September 2006, it's not entirely convincing as a theory to explain the more recent proliferation, though network effects can be unpredictable in their growth patterns, and conspiracy theorists might enjoy the nine-month gap between opening the site and rapid growth from around June.

A more plausible cause is the May 2007 launch of the Facebook API, which made it possible to develop third-party applications for use by Facebook members. Facebook doesn't allow embedded HTML and CSS on its pages, which has the advantage of not allowing users to create lairy, grotesque design travesties (aka large swathes of MySpace), but the disadvantage of minimising customisation options.

A typical MySpace page: like digital vomit and usually overrun by teenage emo "cutters" and spammers promoting anabolic steroids.A typical MySpace page: like digital vomit and usually overrun by teenage emo "cutters" and spammers promoting anabolic steroids.

Facebook Applications provide a means of achieving personalisation, without the inherent security and ugliness risks. Since the official launch, applications have proliferated, ranging from the useful (maps to track places you've visited, file sharing and collaboration applications) to the utterly facetious (becoming a vampire or a werewolf and biting everyone you know, or tracking whether or not Paris Hilton is in jail at any given time).

Facebook's official blurb is that "a Facebook application uses Facebook Platform to access information from the social graph, offering users an experience that's relevant to them", demonstrating that large swathes of corporate babble need not block the successful launch of a product. Presumably, Facebook developers would be happily welcomed at Microsoft.

Mockery aside, however, it's true that the most useful applications do draw on existing networks; while it's superficially neat to embed a playable version of Pac-Man in your browser, there's no obvious benefit to doing this versus running it in MAME, or Excel, or online. (OK, there's a benefit to Facebook in keeping your eyeballs glued to the page and its associated advertisements. Speaking of which, it'd help if some of those ads didn't hover annoyingly over the captcha screen used when you send friend invitations.)

In any event, there are more than 1500 add-on applications for Facebook now available. Many are derivative versions of existing Facebook features (often dressed up with the phrase 'super' or suchlike), and others skate on the verge of copyright infringement by quoting huge slabs of text from popular TV shows. But whatever your tastes, there's probably an application to fit.

A typical Facebook page: OMG, is that Kevin Rudd? OMG, OMG, I'm friends with Kevin Rudd!A typical Facebook page: OMG, is that Kevin Rudd? OMG, OMG, I'm friends with Kevin Rudd!

Whether that strategy can maintain growth is another matter. Facebook hasn't yet suffered from endless complaints about the site being used for inappropriate purposes, but that's almost an inevitable consequence of growth. As with any major site, funding technology expansion to match network growth will be a challenge, and there's already a low hum of privacy-related complaints. And then there's the key question: who's going to develop an application quoting key bits of wisdom from Ashton Mills?


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sublime cowgirl:

I'm speculating that the rise in Facebook awareness occured internationally with the news that the US Uni shooter has a facebook profile, which the media liberally quoted from to glean info about the student.

29 February 2008, 8:31 PM (2 years ago)report abuse Send to a friend reply

sublime cowgirl:

Um, just checked the dates, and i think i'm spot on. The Shooting was the 16th April, and that cohort of Virginia Tech Uni students heavily used Facebook, which was also reported extensively in the media. for example: these stories.

This a whole new international audience heard about the site, often clicking through on links embedded in news articles.



29 February 2008, 8:31 PM (2 years ago)report abuse Send to a friend reply

Wes:

There could some truth in that but those people still had to sign up to join and thats another step.

29 February 2008, 8:45 PM (2 years ago)report abuse Send to a friend reply

sublime cowgirl:

"Between mid-April and the end of June, visits to Facebook by Australian users grew by 246%. Some of that growth may have come at the expense of MySpace -- its share of Hitwise's 'Net Communities and Chat Websites' category dropped by around 1% during the same period to just over 7%, while Facebook's doubled from under 2% to just under 4%. Searches for the term 'Facebook' also rose by 93% during that time, Hitwise found."


Look at the time frame and it fits exactly with my theory.
The last sentence nails it i think. OF the 93% Aussies who searched Facebook as a result of the Virginia Tech Shootings, only a fraction of those needed to go to sign up to give the site a 246% increase.

I was even one of them who only heard about facebook due to media coverage of the shootings, with information seeping out over the next week about the killers profile on Facebook. What is facebook , i thought to myself? I was in Laos at the time, and amongst the other backpackers there was quite a lot of discussion about around it - i.e. who had an account, etc. I would even go as far to say that across the world there was a strong spike of interest after that date, esp from the backpacker internet cafes!!

29 February 2008, 8:45 PM (2 years ago)report abuse Send to a friend reply

The Doctor:

Great, unpopular in the real world AND on the internet [I haven't received an invitation to Facebook].

29 February 2008, 8:31 PM (2 years ago)report abuse Send to a friend reply

Charles:

..but the reason I recently joined facebook was because .. I was invited to it by someone else. I don't think it is the VT shooting or anything like that - simply that as more people join, and invite their friends, the number of people on it grows exponentially.

29 February 2008, 8:31 PM (2 years ago)report abuse Send to a friend reply

sublime cowgirl:

I still argue the VC shootings raised the level of consciousness of the site in AUstralia, and was kind of a tipping point. Those who took it up early following new awareness (via the media) of an american trend, obviously had a vested interest in inviting their social networks to join, hence the rapid growth from that point.

Esplain the 93 % growth in 'googling' the term 'facebook' at that point any other way.
(you dont google something unless you have heard about it someplace - and i think that was due to the shootings.)

Google search "facebook and virginia shootings" and see waht comes up.

29 February 2008, 8:45 PM (2 years ago)report abuse Send to a friend reply

Enough already:

Sublime Cowgirl, you really need to let it go. Who cares?

29 February 2008, 8:45 PM (2 years ago)report abuse Send to a friend reply

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