Will 3D TV hit the mainstream in 2010?

3D TV was a major topic of discussion at CES 2009, and manufacturers are rolling out new models and technologies in 2010. But despite the increasing prominence of 3D titles like Avatar in cinemas, it's likely to be a few years before there's a 3D TV in every home.

"3D in the home is one of the biggest stories," CEA chief economist Shawn DuBravac predicted ahead of the opening of the 2010 show. "This year we're taking the next step in 3D. It will go beyond just displays. These will be products that are ready for market. It's not just going to be manufacturers talking about their offerings. It's going to hit every aspect of the show floor."

3D TV has already proven the major topic of discussion at pre-show events. It was the centrepiece of press launches for Samsung, LG and Toshiba, with the latter's promise of live 3D conversion attracting a significant amount of attention. All three companies are promising 3D sets in 2010, though many won't appear until later in the year and release plans outside the US are hazy. "I believe this year will be the beginning of 3D in consumer electronics," said LG CTO Dr Woo Paik.

Toshiba's push to automatically render 3D content highlights one important issue: whether people want all their TV content in 3D (which would pose major production headaches and push up costs), or only see the technology as relevant to special event programming.

So far, consumers appear to be still treating 3D viewing as more of an event than a regular feature. Research by the CEA suggests that only one-third of consumers want 3D rendering for all of their programming. About the same percentage want it for games, while movies (named by 65%) remain the biggest driver.

In this context, the influence of Avatar is inescapable: every company wants to use a brief clip as a demo. It's hard to argue with a billion dollar box office take, of course, but translating those habits to TV viewers (who aren't coughing up for premium price cinema tickets) is a whole different ball game. Sports network ESPN is promising some 3D content, and Sony, Imax and the Discovery Channel are collaborating on a planned all-3D network. But the real selling point remains event movies and major sporting broadcasts.

"Sports is a big driver, action/adventure is a big driver," said DuBravac. "The World Cup is the first big sporting event with respect to 3D."

However, those habits could quickly change, DuBravac suggested. "3D is like HD. There were a lot of sceptics about HD initially."

One important step forward has been the recent approval of a 3D standard by the Blu-Ray Disc Association, and the promise that players later this year will support 3D playback. (Sony, Samsung and Toshiba have all pledged to upgrade their players to handle this, and there'll be a firmware upgrade for the PS3).

For now, though, the main issue is selling sets. "Next year, we'll sell about 4.3 million sets in the US. By 2013, 25% of TVs being sold in the US will be 3D," DuBravac suggested.

One reason consumer electronics companies (as distinct from consumers themselves) are so keen to see 3D taken up is that it gives them an excuse to sell even more equipment, and more expensive options. CEA surveys suggest that 69% of adults who have ever seen a 3D movie want to purchase a TV that's more than 40 inches in size, as compared to 49% amongst those that haven't.

"Why do I love 3D? More bandwidth!" cable obsessive Noel Lee proclaimed at the Monster Cable launch.

"We intend to take the lead in 3D," Sony chairman Sir Howard Stringer said. Sony is the only company fully immersed in every link of the 3D value chain." Some of the odder links in that chain include plans for a 3D Taylor Swift tour diary and 3D renditions of classic Jimi Hendrix performances.

Despite the plethora of announcements, DuBravac thinks we're still in the early, hype-ridden phase of 3D TV. "In a year, everyone will be asking why it's taking so long for 3D to grow," he said.