CES 2010: what's going to be hot

Yes, it's almost that time of year again. The Consumer Electronics Show (CES) is running in Las Vegas from January 7 to January 10, and APC will be provided as-it-happens on the ground coverage. CES traditionally attracts a mammoth crowd, and often proves the source of many a hot product launch. Last year saw the much-hyped official announcement of the Palm Pre, though a year later we're still waiting for it to show up in Australia.

A fortnight out from CES 2010, there's relatively few whispers about killer products. In large part, that's because of a bigger question: whether or not the event will be quite as impressive as in previous years. And the reason for that decline? Economic lag, or our old friend the global financial crisis.

Vendors traditionally book for CES a year or more in advance, so the depressed economy didn't directly impact bookings for the 2009 event. However, decisions on whether to invest in the 2010 show would have been affected by the GFC. The most visible sign of the change? Keynote speeches have moved from the Sands back to a smaller venue at the Hilton.

CES 2009 had an overall attendance of 113,085, down substantially from the 141,150 seen the year before. The official line from organisers is that they're happy with the smaller numbers, as that means the audience is better qualified (CES isn't open to the general public; you have to be in the consumer electronics business or media to attend). This is, of course, just the kind of face-saving excuse conference organisers always pull out in the face of declining numbers.

Nonetheless, those falling numbers need to be seen in perspective. Even if CES 2010 only got 100,000 people, that would still make it the world's largest trade show in terms of number of attendees. It completely dwarfs Macworld, which in recent years has often been staged at the same time, leading to frankly delusional suggestions that it's somehow a direct rival for CES.

In 2010, Macworld isn't happening until February. More significantly, it has no involvement from Apple, which means media attention is likely to be much more subdued.

When the announcement of Apple's withdrawal first appeared in December 2008, there was some wishful thinking that Apple might participate more heavily in CES. That hasn't happened, though one of CES 2010's specialist 'Tech Zones' is the iLounge Pavilion, where Mac accessory vendors can ply their wares. With the latest rumours suggesting Apple's much-vaunted tablet PC won't appear until March, Mac-related excitement is likely to be at a minimum throughout the show.

So what do we get? The big picture keynotes are from some familiar faces: Microsoft's monkey-loving CEO Steve Ballmer, Intel chief Paul Otellini, Nokia CEO Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo, Ford CEO Alan Mulally, Qualcomm boss Paul E. Jacobs, and Hisense chairman Zhou Houjian (no, we didn't know either).

Compared to 2009, there's not much obvious excitement in the way of new products. Ballmer will gloat about the success of Windows 7. Otellini will talk up the new Core processors due from Intel. Kallasvuo will pretend Symbian still has a fighting chance, and promote Comes With Music a lot. Mulally will pretend there's a future in cars and announce a lot of vehicles that will never be seen outside the US.

With that said, CES usually produces a few surprises, whether that's unexpected weird products from tiny start-ups or random appearances by celebrities. Tune into apcmag.com from January 6 for all the news from the show.